Where are the Monarch Butterflies?

Winter 2024 Monarch Press
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Monarch Populations are Low Throughout California

The Xerces Society’s annual Western Monarch Count shows the migrating western monarch population is low across the entire overwintering range from the Mendocino Coast in northern California to northern Baja California.

Why?

Monarch butterfly and other insect populations naturally fluctuate from year to year in response to temperature, rainfall, availability of food, predation, disease and other factors. The long-term decline of the migratory western monarch population – a stunning 95% since the 1980s – goes far beyond natural year-to-year fluctuations. Experts believe the population is impacted by pesticide use, increasing heat, wildfire, drought and severe storms in their overwintering and breeding habitats. The chart below, which does not yet include this season’s counts, shows a declining trend, despite counts occurring at more locations across the migration area.

What Does this Mean for Ellwood?

Each year in October, migrating monarch butterflies arrive along the California coast and spread out to search for overwintering habitats. In November, they begin to settle into groves of trees that offer wind protection, sunlight, space for flying, food, and other needs. By mid-December, they aggregate into large clusters at the best groves and abandon those with less protection. Ellwood Mesa is one of the places monarchs prefer to spend their winter.

The City’s biological consultants count monarchs throughout Ellwood Mesa biweekly during the overwintering season. This information helps us understand monarch behavior, the condition of the grove, and contributes to understanding the status of the western monarch population. So far this year, our counts have been very low. In early December we saw only 4 butterflies. Last year at this time we counted over 15,000. We hope these numbers will rise as the season progresses – the monarch population at Ellwood Mesa generally peaks in mid-December – but based on what we are seeing here and throughout California, we anticipate significantly fewer monarchs at Ellwood this year.

Experts are disappointed but not disheartened. First, because the population already exceeds the record low counts of the 2020/2021 season, and we saw a significant recovery over the following three seasons. Second, there is so much research, work, and education being done to help secure the overwintering and breeding habitats the monarchs need to survive. The City of Goleta is proud to be a part of these efforts. We are clearing dead and dying trees, restoring habitat, and planting thousands of new trees to improve the butterfly habitat at Ellwood Mesa. These efforts will ensure the grove will provide what the butterflies need for generations to come.

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